Nava Thakuria
Naypyidaw: Trouble-torn Myanmar (also known as Burma or Brahmadesh) is heading for the next general elections after the military coup in 2021 that ousted a democratically elected government in Naypyitaw. The proposed three-phase polling, starting on 28 December 2025, will however prevent several important political parties including Aung San Suu Kyi-led National League for Democracy (NLD, which won the last general elections held in November 2020) from participating in the electoral exercise. The elections, where only the proxies of Burmese military junta are joining, will seemingly be one sided in their favour and results are expected by the end of January next year.
The Buddhist majority southeast Asian nation of nearly 55 million people is however witnessing a kind of civil war, where the Min Aung Hlaing-led Tatmadaw continue fighting the people’s militia, resulting in thousands being killed, hundred thousand detained and millions displaced across the poverty stricken country. In various battles under Operation 1027, which was launched in October 2024 by the anti-junta rebel groups, the government forces faced humiliating defeats and by now half of the Burmese territories comprising important towns and military bases had gone out of the military’s control. The voting in those localities will be either impossible or lowly participating and hence a free, fair and comprehensive election in the Land of Golden Pagodas still remains elusive.
The junta-appointed Union Election Commission (UEC) prepares for the second and third phases on 11 and 25 January 2026, where the exercise is supposed to cover around 274 out of 330 townships (loosely termed for constituencies). More precisely, millions of Myanmar nationals are now living abroad (some four million Myanmarese reportedly taking shelter in Thailand) legally and illegally. As the anti-junta people’s defence forces, ethnic armed groups and revolutionary organizations maintain significant influence across the international border localities, the voter registration as well as polling may be severely affected.
The UEC had already deregistered a number of political parties citing the reasons for not fulfilling necessary criteria including one to possess a certain number of members and functioning offices. Nearly 40 political parties, including the NLD, even did not re-register with the Burmese electoral authority as the crackdown against pro-democracy armed resistance units continue putting over 22,000 political prisoners (including President U Win Myint, facing over a decade sentence, Nobel peace laureate Suu Kyi, imprisoned for 27 years, and a number of elected representatives) under detention.
The state-run Global New Light of Myanmar recently reported that the State Administration Council (the military regime) enacted a new election law imposing harsh penalties up to seven years of imprisonment for any speech, incitement, protest, distribution of leaflets against the electoral process. The newly enacted repressive law also imposed heavy punishments for damaging ballot papers or vandalizing polling stations as well as intimidating candidates, election workers and voters in general. Many Myanmarese citizens, who criticized the electoral process on social media, were sentenced for many years in prison. The number of victims may even increase in the coming days.
“Civilian casualties exceed 7,500 and 3.6 million people have been displaced since 2021 as the government forces exercised indiscriminate crackdowns including air strikes on crowded places, hospitals and even schools. Many pro-democracy leaders have left for the neighbouring countries like Thailand, China, Bangladesh and India to escape the military atrocities. On the other hand, the country is reeling under a severe economic crisis because of financial mismanagements of the military rulers,” claimed a Yangon-based political activist, who wanted anonymity, adding that many wards and village-tracts under Sagaing, Magway, Mandalay, Ayeyarwady, Bago, Tanintharyi regions and Shan, Kachin, Kayah, Kayin, Mon, Rakhine, Chin states will avoid hosting the polls.
With only six political parties including the Tatmadaw-aligned Union Solidarity and Development Party, National Unity Party, People’s Pioneer Party, Myanmar Farmers Development Party, Shan & Nationalities Democratic Party and People’s Party been allowed to field candidates nationwide and nearly 50 other smaller political entities taking part in regional assemblies, the forthcoming elections will hardly enjoy due credibility. Nevertheless, military dictator Hlaing and his associates will try to showcase the exercise as a successful venture with an aim to get legitimacy for their unlawful power grabbing .
A recent editorial in Mizzima newspaper, assumed to be highly circulated and influential in Myanmar, stated that the junta after seizing power in 2021 was working ‘to consolidate its rule through a veneer of electoral legitimacy’. However, the crackdown on dissenting voices in the lead-up to polling continues and it uncovers the authoritarian foundation of the military regime. From the outset, the proposed election has been widely regarded as an attempt by the junta to legitimize its seizure of power through controlled and deeply compromised political processes, said the editorial, adding that even though dictator Hlaing promised a return to disciplined democracy, his ultimate goal will rest on enduring control over the country’s political system.
The critics and observers both within and outside Myanmar have argued that any election held under the current circumstances cannot be inclusive and credible. Since the last coup, thousands of political activists, journalists, and ordinary citizens have been arrested, and many have been tortured or killed. An exile regime, named National Unity Government (NUG, primarily formed by the elected representatives, who were not allowed to take charge) has urged the international community to denounce the junta’s sham election and prevent sending any poll-observers to Myanmar. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) leaders, often criticized for their feeble voices against the Burmese junta, decided not to send election observers from the member-countries during the polls.
The Geneva-based global media safety and rights body Press Emblem Campaign (PEC), while urging the military regime to release all media professionals, demanded to abolish new election interference law that continues harassing scribes and social media users in the name of clean-up efforts as a prelude to the multi-phase elections. The PEC sources revealed that over 200 journalists were detained and imprisoned since the 2021 coup overthrowing the democratically elected Suu Kyi’s government and nearly 40 media professionals are still behind the bars across the politically disturbed country. The junta also cancelled permits of around 15 media outlets, compelling the scribed to work from hideouts, and the foreign media has largely been restricted.
Meanwhile, the ASEAN Parliamentarians for Human Rights (APHR) also urged the ASEAN 2026 leaders to reject the junta’s fraud elections. Welcoming a recent meeting between an APHR delegation and Philippine foreign affairs secretary Ma Theresa P Lazaro, who serves as ASEAN 2026 special envoy on Myanmar situation, the network of ASEAN lawmakers expressed concerns over the junta’s escalating violence and worsening humanitarian conditions in the country emphasizing on a principled, united, and justice-driven approach to end the suffering and also restoring the democratic aspirations of Myanmar people. Commending secretary Lazaro for her commitment to the cause of Myanmar and its people, the APHR stressed that ASEAN’s credibility and regional stability are at stake. The forum also offered possible support to help bridging the humanitarian, political and technical gaps.
Lately, the junta has granted mass amnesty to another group of 3,085 political prisoners and dropped charges against 5,580 individuals paving their releases from different jails ahead of voting. According to the state-run television channel MRTV, their release was sanctioned to help them exercise their franchises in elections and thus promoting goodwill among the electorates. The released prisoners were however asked not to repeat the offense (read opposing the military dictators and proposed elections). Till date, no report surfaced if ailing octogenarian Suu Kyi, the daughter of Burma’s independence hero Aung San, figures among them.
All the neighboring countries including India, which has a major investment in the under-construction Kaladan riverine project, expressed their concern over the continued instability on border localities and also influx of Myanmarese migrants. Political observers believe that the forthcoming elections will hardly help installing a civilian regime, guided by the Parliamentary rules, and the military dictators will continue enjoying absolute political power. The current military chief may emerge as the new President of Myanmar and he would appoint someone from trusted followers as the top military commander. At the same time, the lawmakers (under the military-drafted 2008 Constitution reserving space for 25% members in the Parliament and key ministries to the defence personnel) will probably function as mute spectators while dealing with any military-involved developments.